At least once a week, I take the ferry across Sydney Harbour. (If you visit Sydney, it’s probably one of the most underrated activities you can do).
Even after five months, I never tire of the view.
But it always amuses me to see ‘influencers’ standing at the front of the ferry, dancing with the Opera House in the background whilst everyone else is going about their day.
What most people don’t realise that despite its beauty, the Opera House is a spectacular failure.
Originally budgeted to cost $7m, starting in 1959 and take 4 years to build, it took 14 years, overspent by a staggering 1,357%, and ended up costing $102m.
The architect, Jørn Utzon, never saw his masterpiece finished.
He resigned after disputes with the government and never returned to Australia.
But here’s what’s fascinating – the pattern that doomed the Opera House still plays out in boardrooms today.
Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, in his book: How Big Things Get Done, studied thousands of major projects and found that 92% suffer from “systematic optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation.”
He calls this the “iron law of megaprojects: over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.”
I see this with leaders in organisations of every size:
- Consistently underestimating complexity
- Overestimating organisational capability
- Planning for best-case scenarios
- Committing to too many priorities simultaneously
One CFO I worked with recently showed me his organisation’s strategic plan.
“We have 27 major initiatives planned for this year,” he said proudly.
I asked him a simple question: “How many did you complete last year?”
His answer?
“Three.”
Your Challenge This Week:
Look at your list of strategic projects and ask:
“If we could only complete three major initiatives this year, which would create the most impact?”
Because sometimes less ambition leads to more achievement.
Matthew Needham is an accountant and former CFO who consults and speaks on improving organisational performance. He helps leaders without a finance background confidently engage in financial discussions, enabling better decisions that drive improved performance. For more information, visit matthewneedham.co.